Building upon the Pathways to a Zero Carbon Oxfordshire (PaZCO) report published in 2021 for the Oxfordshire Local Enterprise Partnership, the Net Zero Route Map & Action Plan identifies and models a pathway for county-wide decarbonisation. It outlines priority actions required to deliver the county’s ambitions, and focuses on the joint approach of local authorities to accelerate decarbonisation and support the realisation of a Net Zero Oxfordshire
Overview
City Science successfully developed and delivered the Oxfordshire Net Zero Route Map & Action Plan to Oxfordshire County Council. This project included updating the baseline GHG emissions data evidence, modelling several sectoral decarbonisation scenarios, and co-developing an Action Plan, containing 16 priority actions and associated business cases, to radically reduce carbon emissions: enabling a better place for Oxfordshire and its five local authority districts.
To maximise deliverability, our approach was underpinned by extensive stakeholder engagement to obtain local buy-in, avoid duplication with previous low carbon interventions and to identify relevant action owners to carry the actions forward.
City Science Response
To inform the development of an evidence-led Route Map & Action Plan and to thoroughly understand current emission levels, we conducted a comprehensive review of relevant policies and data. This review was consolidated and presented within a Baseline Report consisting of:
- Literature Review: Focusing on national and local strategies critical to the study, identifying exemplars of decarbonisation best practice within the UK, exploring available funding to support delivery and assessing the full range of current/emerging technologies to support Oxfordshire’s continued leadership in low carbon innovation.
- Carbon Baseline: We developed an up-to-date picture on current emissions and emission drivers through developing a carbon baseline for the county and the five district councils, building on previous modelling work conducted in the region to avoid duplication. The baseline model covered the four key carbon emitting sectors: Energy Supply, Transport, Domestic, and Industrial & Commercial.
- A ‘Do Nothing Scenario’: Providing annual predictions of current emissions up to 2030, assuming that Oxfordshire takes no further action, and current trends continue. This was used as a critical reference point to benchmark potential net zero pathways.
Figure 1: 2020 Baseline Energy Consumption (Left) and Emissions by Sector (Right)
Council Specific Plans
We developed baselines for each local authority district, analysing this data using our Carbon Maturity Model, to produce bespoke carbon budgets and support the development of tailored next steps to enable them to align to the Oxfordshire-wide objectives. In addition, pathways were developed for the building stock which linked the requirements for Institutional / Council owned properties to requirements for the wider region, providing clear decarbonisation pathways of council owned properties.
Pathway Modelling
Informed by the baseline analysis and council-specific carbon budgets, we modelled several decarbonisation pathways to identify the recommended approach to net zero in the current policy and technological landscape. The Pathway model included multiple scenarios (including a Do Nothing and National Pathway) which were developed and refined through stakeholder consultation sessions. Scenarios were tested to ensure alignment with other relevant local policy documents.
Route Maps
We produced five high-level Route Maps, deconstructing the net zero target into clear and tangible intermediate goals aligned to milestones in 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2050. The Overarching Route Map was supported by four sector-specific Route Maps consisting of: Transport; Energy Supply; Domestic; and Industrial & Commercial.
Figure 2: Example of the Overarching Net Zero Route Map
Action Plan
The Action Plan was informed by the updated net zero pathway modelling, key sectoral milestones identified within the Route Map, and an extensive stakeholder engagement process. To ensure the development of a high impact action plan we:
- Assessed sphere of influence and reviewed best-practice, identifying examples of organisations pushing the boundaries, to inform opportunities to accelerate ambitions.
- Utilised our in-house Carbon Assessment Tool to understand the quantitative impact of the emerging actions on carbon emissions.
- Assessed the feasibility of actions (including costs, access to funding, carbon impact, and the co-benefits – for instance health, equality, and job creation).
To ensure local buy-in to support successful implementation, we developed the actions in close collaboration with key stakeholders. This included:
- Extensive 1:1s with key stakeholders to identify existing actions, determine sphere of influence and review best-practices.
- Five thematic workshops to identify key areas for action.
- Nine targeted focus groups, each prioritising actions and developing high level business cases.
- Two consultation sessions to obtain feedback and secure buy-in prior to finalising the actions.
Outcomes
We produced a highly accessible and detailed Final Report which consolidated our approach and outputs of each project stage including the five Route Maps and Action Plan. The final Action Plan consists of a portfolio of 16 actions, ranging from actions that will deliver measurable results over the short-term to empower and demonstrate success, to others that will span across multi-year programmes. These actions build on existing activities to support the significant scale up of measures required to meet Oxfordshire’s ambitious net zero commitments. Whilst ambitious, these short-term actions are embedded in realism to support successful delivery. For each action key stakeholders, funding sources, costs, anticipated carbon impacts, co-benefits and key performance indicators were identified. To further support dissemination, we delivered a Highlights Report which provided a high-level overview of the project.