The aviation sector faces one of the hardest net zero challenges of all. While efficiency improvements and electrification will play a part, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) remains the only scalable option for deep decarbonisation of long-haul flights this side of 2040. As a ‘drop-in’ fuel that works with existing aircraft, it offers the most practical route to near-term emissions reduction.
At the same time, waste disposal continues to pose environmental and financial challenges for local authorities. Could these two problems help solve each other?
Download a copy of our full Waste-to-SAF Feasibility Study below or read on for a short summary.
Introducing the project
As part of the Heathrow Strategic Planning Group’s “Runway to Net Zero” programme, City Science led a high-level feasibility study exploring whether residual municipal solid waste from across Surrey and the wider Heathrow area could form the basis of a local SAF production system.
The study examined:
- Residual waste volumes and composition
- Potential SAF yields under different production pathways
- Likely impacts of new policies, such as the inclusion of Energy from Waste in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme
- Infrastructure requirements to support SAF production including land, water, energy, and waste logistics
It also compared the indicative carbon performance of a waste-to-SAF pathway against current waste disposal via Energy from Waste incineration.
What we found
Through discussions with industry experts, we established that locating a waste-to-SAF plant near Heathrow (rather than in an industrial cluster which has been the focus of developments so far), there are some substantial benefits to be gained, such as a high population density generating large amounts of waste in a relatively small radius, and a significant nearby offtake in Heathrow Airport.
A geospatial analysis conducted using City Science’s Cadence platform mapped key waste infrastructure and existing waste flow routes, helping partners understand both the practical opportunities and the transport feasibility of future supply chains.
City Science used Surrey as a test bed for our analysis, which produces around 185,000 tonnes of residual municipal waste per year. Within this, the SAF-relevant fraction (paper and card, wood, plastics and textiles) totalled approximately 63,000 tonnes.
Depending on conversion efficiency, this material could produce up to 20,000 tonnes of SAF – enough to power hundreds of long-haul flights from Heathrow, while cutting waste disposal emissions by over a third compared with Energy from Waste incineration.
The analysis also showed that a commercial-size SAF facility would need to draw waste from multiple neighbouring authorities to reach viable scale, making the case for regional collaboration across the Heathrow Strategic Planning Group (HSPG) area and beyond.
Conclusions
With Heathrow at the heart of one of the UK’s largest waste-producing regions, there is a unique opportunity to align aviation decarbonisation with local waste and energy planning. Waste-to-SAF offers a compelling alternative to conventional disposal routes such as incineration or landfill, with significant environmental benefits.
Looking Ahead
Through projects like Runway to Net Zero, we’re supporting regions to turn climate ambition into action, contributing to the UK’s drive to be a leader in clean aviation and to deliver on the Jet Zero Strategy.
Phase 2 of Runway to Net Zero has demonstrated the potential for Waste-to-SAF in the HSPG region, showing the need for a regionally coordinated approach to SAF development. Next steps to progress this work should focus on pathways to implementation, including a wider assessment of feedstock availability, identification of SAF production sites, and reviewing the economic case.
To find out more about our research and innovation projects at www.cityscience.com/case-studies.
If you would like to understand how we could help you with aviation decarbonisation, SAF, energy-from-waste, or broader energy planning, contact: joe.mcquillen@cityscience.com.