Last week, ClimateXChange published our research that provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of direct air capture (DAC) technology prospects in Scotland. The findings deliver a quantitative assessment of the commercial viability of large-scale DAC deployment in the country by 2040.
The Bottom Line: A Profitability Gap
Our analysis reveals a critical challenge facing DAC development in Scotland: the projected cost of DAC in Scotland limits the market size such that demand for direct air capture CO₂ utilisation by 2040 is projected to fall far short of the levels needed to make DAC plants profitable. This study focuses specifically on DAC where the captured CO₂ is then used in various applications, rather than permanently stored.
The findings indicate that demand for utilisation will continue rising through the 2040s, but at levels insufficient to support the minimum economically viable plant sizes for certain DAC technologies. For liquid DAC systems, which require a minimum plant size of 0.5 Mt CO₂ annually to achieve economies of scale, the utilisation market alone cannot provide adequate demand. Solid DAC systems can operate effectively at smaller scales, making them potentially more viable for the utilisation market but these solid DAC systems are generally predicted to be more expensive than liquid DAC in terms of cost per tonne of CO2 captured.
It’s important to note that larger plants or multiple facilities could become feasible if some of the captured CO₂ were directed to permanent storage rather than utilisation alone. This finding has significant implications for Scotland’s net-zero ambitions and the role DAC technology might play in achieving them.
Comprehensive Technology Assessment
The study, conducted by our expert team of Joe McQuillen, Heather Goodwin, Ethan Kennedy and Lucy Li from City Science, compared the projected costs of DAC across various countries. We modelled the two leading DAC technologies:
- Solid DAC systems – which use solid sorbent materials to capture CO₂
- Liquid DAC systems – which employ liquid solutions for CO₂ absorption
This dual-technology approach provides a robust foundation for understanding the potential and limitations of direct air capture in the Scottish context, particularly for utilisation applications.
Supporting Scotland’s Net-Zero Evidence Base
The findings from this research will directly inform the Scottish Government’s evidence base on DAC technology, providing policymakers with crucial quantitative data for decision-making around climate technology investments and strategies. As Scotland pursues its ambitious net-zero targets, understanding the realistic prospects for technologies like DAC becomes increasingly important.
What This Means for Scotland’s Climate Strategy
While our research highlights significant challenges for large-scale DAC deployment in Scotland by 2040, it also provides a roadmap for understanding what would need to change to make this technology commercially viable. The profitability gap we’ve identified for utilisation-focused DAC could be reduced via several potential pathways:
- Technological breakthroughs that dramatically reduce costs.
- Policy interventions that create greater market demand for CO₂ for utilisation.
- Low-cost energy, particularly low-cost electricity or using waste heat from other processes.
- Integration of CO2 storage alongside utilisation to support larger plant sizes.
- Focus on smaller-scale solid DAC systems that better match current utilisation demand levels.
- A combination of these approaches.
Read the Full Report
The complete findings, methodology, and detailed analysis are available in our full report. For policymakers, researchers, and industry professionals working on Scotland’s net-zero transition, this research provides essential, quantitative insights into one of the most discussed climate technologies of our time.