City Science developed a transport decarbonisation pathway for the London Borough of Barnet, using data-driven analysis and an innovative online tool to align with the Borough’s net-zero target by 2042.
Overview
City Science was commissioned by Barnet Council to develop an evidence base to support setting a transport decarbonisation pathway for the London Borough of Barnet which will help inform the revision of its Transport Strategy. To achieve this, we produced a data driven evidence base, net zero pathways and identified potential interventions based on our evidence base, and a literature and best practice review. We also conducted a Carbon Impact Analysis to quantify the likely carbon savings of ten selected transport interventions to determine their impact.
Scope
Barnet Council declared a climate and biodiversity emergency in May 2022, and have an aim for the Council to be Net Zero by 2030, and for the wider Borough to be Net Zero as soon as possible after this – but by 2042 at the latest. To enable delivery of the ambition, City Science was tasked with providing Barnet Council with a tool and an evidence base to identify the gap between current transport emissions trajectories and its Net Zero commitments.
Through lessons learnt from a previous study (when we conducted a transport decarbonisation study for the Royal Borough of Kingston Upon Thames Council and Westminster City Council in 2022), where we found that there is a data gap at the London borough level. For this study we therefore built on our previous work, and developed a specific, data-driven solution, that addresses the unique environmental and infrastructural needs of the Borough.
City Science Response
Our expert team with industry-led expertise in delivering decarbonisation models has established a framework with some key steps and a flexible structure to inform transport decarbonisation studies. The flexibility of this tried-and-tested framework allows us to develop bespoke models for clients. Our response followed the key steps of that framework.
- Data-led Evidence Base: Our in-house method involving use of disaggregation datasets was employed to produce models of transport carbons in the study area. The emissions in key catogories such as vehicle type, journey purpose and type, trip length were estimated and analysis was carried out to identify key emission sources.
- Emission Forecasting Under Different Scenarios & Identify Gaps: The next step in our model involves developing emission pathways. For Barnet Council, the transport pathwyas were forecasted for four selected scenarios: Do Nothing, National Firm & Funded, Regional & National Firm & Funded and Net Zero 2042 (see below illustration)
From the above illustration, the considerable gap between the Regional & National Firm & Funded scenario and the Net Zero 2042 highlights the need of a range of additional local interventions:
- Long List Low Carbon Interventions: We used our extensive Low Carbon Intervention Database which has been developed through experience of delivering transport decarbonisation projects and production of the RTPI’s Net Zero Transport Report to produce a long list of options. Also, a detailed This approach embeds the Avoid-Shift-Improve Framework as it naturally aligns with the Transport Hierarchy, and a series of themes including infrastructure, policy and legal, behaviour change and economic.
- Carbon Impact Analysis: From our long list of interventions, ten interventions were selected for Carbon Impact Analysis upon consultation with the Council, as the carbon impacts of interventions provides an evidence base for decision-making and inform prioritisation of actions.
- Communicating Findings: Our findings are delivered to the clients through reports and a series of presentations at different stages of the project. As an added benefit, we offered free access to City Science’s online Transport Decarbonisation Tool (available at https://decarbonisation.cityscience.com), which will allow Council officers and Members to test different packages of interventions across the avoid, shift and improve categories. This tool (screenshot below) developed by City Science offers users to interact with different factors and investigate the impacts, upon emissions, of different future scenarios and targets.
Outcomes
We found that the interventions, when looked at individually, all have modest impacts on reducing emissions. Only focusing on one intervention such as vehicle/fleet electrification will not be sufficient to achieve Net Zero commitments. Therefore, a “Do Everything” approach will play a pivotal role so that interventions from all themes of the Avoid-Shift-Improve Framework are implemented to maximize impacts. Also, it is important to focus on delivering quick and easy wins in the short-term whilst simultaneously planning for the delivery of more substantial, high-impact, interventions in the future.