City Science has delivered three Local Area Energy Plans across the South West Wales Region, as part of the Welsh Government’s national delivery programme. The Welsh Government’s programme is currently the most extensive and advanced programme of LAEPs within the UK, and we are proud to have been the only SME supplier on the delivery team, representing Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire, considering all areas of the energy system including generation, storage, industry, commercial, institutional/public sector, domestic, and transport.
Overview
We were tasked with managing the development of three Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs) for the South West Wales region, covering Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthenshire. This is currently the most extensive and advanced programme of LAEPs within the UK and has considered all areas of the energy system including generation, storage, industry, commercial, institutional/public sector, domestic, and transport.
Scope
The Welsh Government has set the ambitious goal to be net zero by 2030. In accordance with this goal, local authorities in Wales have been set the task to develop a LAEP by 2024. The region that these LAEPs cover has a rich industrial history which carries through to today with major industrial sites such as the Port Talbot Steelworks lying within the region. The project addressed all energy infrastructure within the region and explored decarbonisation options, which included considering the role hydrogen could play in building and industrial heating, and how renewable developments could bring economic benefit to the local area.
City Science Response
City Science delivered a six-stage plan for these LAEPs, based around the LAEP “Done-Well” checklist. This drew upon best-practice to produce a robust, impactful LAEP.
Our LAEP followed a data driven, whole-system, evidence-based approach, which formed a long-term strategy, delivering a roadmap of key actions for a local authority to achieve net zero. Our process was a deeply collaborative effort developed by local government with the integration of key stakeholders through extensive stakeholder engagement. Our plans used local and modelled data, based on local, regional and national policy and across multiple aspects of the energy system (heat, gas, electricity, the built environment, transport, industry, energy generation and storage and the role of hydrogen). We worked with the local authorities to develop multiple scenarios to explore the range of potential future energy systems and feed in to an optimised spatial and temporal model. The resulting strategy and roadmap include key progress milestones, government policy targets, deployment modelling and will link in the wider benefits to the local community.
Stage 1 – Stakeholder Identification and Engagement
We conducted a detailed stakeholder mapping workshop with each authority to inform stakeholder engagement plans throughout each stage of the LAEP. Engagement undertaken through interviews, presentations and focus groups was critical for having accurate understanding of the local area, and ensuring stakeholder buy-in to strengthen the final action plans.
Stage 2 – Representing Local Areas
We created a baseline model in Cadence 360, utilising stakeholder input to assess the local energy system across building and industry demand, low carbon energy generation, storage, and transport. We gathered specific evidence from regional plans and studies like Hydrogen Strategies, EV Strategies, Local Development Plans, Transport Strategies, and District Heat Studies.
Stage 3 – Modelling Options for the Future
We employed a zonal approach, utilising advanced digital geospatial tools such as Cadence 360 to break down the complex region and model the energy system in a Net Zero 2050 world. Our spatial zones were based on the electricity grid infrastructure, so that our modelled findings could support the Distribution Network Operator in understanding the need for capacity improvements. This also ensured clear identification of local needs and actions, with detailed modelling of geographic zones and energy system elements. We considered various decarbonisation options, factoring in local visions, policies, and uncertainties. Our City Science Whole System Energy Model was customised for each LAEP after stakeholder validation.
Figures 1 & 2: Cadence 360 visualisations of: EV Charging Points by type in Swansea (left), and Renewable Energy Generation by type & size in Neath Port Talbot (right).
Stage 4 – Scenario Refinement and Selection
We analysed scenarios using techno-economic methods and stakeholder input, refining a net-zero pathway. Sensitivity analysis identified optimal, low-regret options for the energy system through close collaboration with stakeholders.
Stage 5 – Actions, Priorities and Decisions
We conducted extensive engagement to develop a long-list of actions with stakeholders through Action Development Workshops. This long-list was subject to a quantitative appraisal and gap analysis as well as refined and prioritised through extensive stakeholder focus groups and prioritisation sessions. The action plans for each of the local authorities were compared during development and synergies and efficiencies were identified to harness a regional approach where possible.
Stage 6 – Create the Plan
We consolidated our results into two detailed LAEP documents for each of the three regions. The main report presented a clear, transparent and easily digestible visualisation of the future energy system and portrayed the detailed pathway and action roadmap required. This was supplemented by a detailed Technical Annex, providing detail on the modelling, assumptions and additional information on the outputs.
Outcomes
By applying our LAEP to the regions and incorporating stakeholder engagement at each level, we have developed an impactful Strategy and Action Roadmap to achieve the decarbonisation goals of each area in South West Wales.
Client Testimonial – “We are extremely pleased with the work that City Science have completed so far towards our LAEP. They have produced a highly informative and thorough Baseline Report, which provides a clear and concise insight to the demographics of the area and its Energy System. The information provided is easily understood and engaging through the use of mapping visuals and diagrams that were created using their Cadence 360 tool.”
Figures 3 & 4: Cadence 360 visualisations of Carmarthenshire Gas Network: Approximation of Served Areas (top), and Percentage of Properties not Connected (bottom).