The transition to low-carbon heating solutions is a crucial step in achieving our net-zero goals. Heat pumps are at the forefront of this revolution, but their efficiency and effectiveness heavily depend on correct sizing. At City Science, we’re excited to share how our involvement in the Right sizing heat pumps project is paving the way for more accurate heat pump sizing, ultimately leading to better performance and reduced costs for homeowners.
The Challenge of Heat Pump Sizing
Traditionally, sizing heat pumps has been a challenge. Heat pumps are at risk of being oversized, due to the nature of the heat-loss calculations used at the design phase, which can result in higher upfront costs, suboptimal efficiency, and increased running expenses. This not only affects homeowners’ wallets but also puts unnecessary strain on the grid. With the UK government’s ambitious target of installing 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028, it’s crucial that we get sizing right. With only around 13,000 qualified heat pump installers in the UK, reducing the time they spend on laborious heat-loss calculations while improving accuracy is crucial to meet our installation targets.
Enter SMETER Technology
SMETER technology uses temperature and smart meter data and advanced algorithms to calculate a home’s Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC) – a measure of how quickly a building loses heat. This information is vital for accurately sizing heat pumps. Our participation in the BEIS SMETER project (See case study here: Smart Meter Enabled Thermal Efficiency Ratings (SMETER) – City Science) has shown that SMETER technologies can calculate HTCs more accurately than traditional methods like RdSAP, and in a more practical and cost-effective manner than invasive tests.
Collaboration with Hoare Lea, Purrmetrix & Places for People
We’re thrilled to be collaborating with Hoare Lea, Purrmetrix & Places for People on a project through the Heat Pump Ready stream 2 programme. This initiative, known as “Right Sizing Heat Pumps,” is developing a standardised tool for heat pump sizing, leveraging the power of SMETER technology.
Key aspects of the project include:
- Smart Meter Integration: Utilising smart meter data to understand a home’s real energy consumption patterns.
- Local Weather Data: Incorporating local weather information to account for regional variations in heating needs.
- AI Powered Analysis: Developing a bespoke algorithm based on a SMETER to accurately calculate heat loss and heating demand.
- Internal Sensors: Using readings from internal temperature & humidity sensors to fine-tune calculations and account for occupant behavior.
- Insightful Sizing Reports: Automating the production of clear and engaging reports, giving homeowners the insights they need to choose the right heating system for their home and enable installers to design the system appropriately
Figure 1: Modelling Approach Reducing Uncertainty by ~50% Compared to First Generation SMETERs
Benefits of Improved Heat Pump Sizing
By developing a next generation SMETER and heat system sizing algorithms we aim to deliver the following benefits:
- Cost Savings and Improved Efficiency: Reducing the size of heat pumps means reduced upfront costs and running expenses, while optimal sizing ensures heat pumps operate at peak efficiency, maximising the energy savings delivered.
- Grid Stability: Accurate sizing can reduce unnecessary load on the electricity grid, supporting wider adoption of heat pumps.
- Increased Consumer Confidence and Adoption: Standardised and accurate sizing leads to improved performance and increasing consumer trust in heat pump technology. As the benefits become clear, we expect to see faster uptake of heat pumps, supporting the UK’s decarbonisation goals.
Looking Ahead
The combination of SMETER technology and our collaboration with Hoare Lea through the Heat Pump Ready programme represents a significant step forward in the heat pump revolution. By leveraging smart meter data, machine learning, and a standardised approach, we’re not just improving heat pump sizing – we’re paving the way for a more efficient, cost-effective, and sustainable heating future.
As we continue to refine this technology and approach, we’re excited about the potential to transform the heat pump installation process. This work isn’t just about numbers and algorithms – it’s about making low-carbon heating solutions more accessible and effective for everyone, bringing us one step closer to our net-zero ambitions. If you’re interested in finding out how you can trial this technology, about our retrofit recommendations engine, APIs, digital tools and retrofit delivery services, then please get in touch with the team at info@cityscience.com.